Near Term Future of Terrorism in the U. S 7 July Terrorism What is the terrorist group most likely to strike within the United States in the next five years? What method or means will this group probably use to carry out the attack and what is the most effective means of countering the attack? Near-Term Future of Terrorism in the U.
Greek homeless person sleeping outside a bank in ; banks were closed at times during the financial crisis to limit withdrawals.
Tensions are Rising These global trends, challenging governance and changing the nature of power, will drive major consequences over the next five years.
They will raise tensions across all regions and types of governments, both within and between countries. These near-term conditions will contribute to the expanding threat from terrorism and leave the future of international order in the balance.
Within countries, tensions are rising because citizens are raising basic questions about what they can expect from their governments in a constantly changing world. Publics are pushing governments to provide peace and prosperity more broadly and reliably at home when what happens abroad is increasingly shaping those conditions.
In turn, these dynamics are increasing tensions between countries—heightening the risk of interstate conflict during the next five years. The combination will also embolden regional and nonstate aggressors—breathing new life into regional rivalries, such as between Riyadh and Tehran, Islamabad and New Delhi, and on the Korean Peninsula.
Governance shortfalls also will drive threat perceptions and insecurity in countries such as Pakistan and North Korea. Economic interdependence among major powers remains a check on aggressive behavior but might be insufficient in itself to prevent a future conflict.
Major and middle powers alike will search for ways to reduce the types of interdependence that leaves them vulnerable to economic coercion and financial sanctions, potentially providing them more freedom of action to aggressively pursue their interests.
Meanwhile, the threat from terrorism is likely to expand as the ability of states, groups, and individuals to impose harm diversifies. The net effect of rising tensions within and between countries—and the growing threat from terrorism—will be greater global disorder and considerable questions about the rules, institutions, and distribution of power in the international system.
EU institutions set monetary policy for Eurozone states, but state capitals retain fiscal and security responsibilities—leaving poorer members saddled with debt and diminished growth prospects and each state determining its own approach to security.
Public frustration with immigration, slow growth, and unemployment will fuel nativism and a preference for national solutions to continental problems. Europe is likely to face additional shocks—banks remain unevenly capitalized and regulated, migration within and into Europe will continue, and Brexit will encourage regional and separatist movements in other European countries.
A shortage of younger workers will reduce tax revenues, fueling debates over immigration to bolster the workforce. The next five years will test US resilience. As in Europe, tough economic times have brought out societal and class divisions.
The share of American men age 54 not seeking work is at the highest level since the Great Depression.
Median incomes rose by 5 percent inhowever, and there are signs of renewal in some communities where real estate is affordable, returns on foreign and domestic investment are high, leveraging of immigrant talent is the norm, and expectations of federal assistance are low, according to contemporary observers.
Despite signs of economic improvement, challenges will be significant, with public trust in leaders and institutions sagging, politics highly polarized, and government revenue constrained by modest growth and rising entitlement outlays. Moreover, advances in robotics and artificial intelligence are likely to further disrupt labor markets.
The United States has rebounded from troubled times before, however, such as when the period of angst in the s was followed by a stronger economic recovery and global role in the world. Innovation at the state and local level, flexible financial markets, tolerance for risk-taking, and a demographic profile more balanced than most large countries offer upside potential.
Finally, America is distinct because it was founded on an inclusive ideal—the pursuit of life, liberty, and happiness for all, however imperfectly realized—rather than a race or ethnicity.
This legacy remains a critical advantage for managing divisions. Central and South America. Although state weakness and drug trafficking have and will continue to beset Central America, South America has been more stable than most regions of the world and has had many democratic advances—including recovery from populist waves from the right and the left.
However, government efforts to provide greater economic and social stability are running up against budget and debt constraints.
Weakened international demand for commodities has slowed growth. Activist civil society organizations are likely to fuel social tensions by increasing awareness of elite corruption, inadequate infrastructure, and mismanagement.
Some incumbents facing possible rejection by their publics are seeking to protect their power, which could lead to a period of intense political competition and democratic backsliding in some countries. Violence is particularly rampant in northern Central America, as gangs and organized criminal groups have undermined basic governance by regimes that lack capacity to provide many basic public goods and services.
Central and South America are likely to see more frequent changes in governments that are mismanaging the economy and beleaguered by widespread corruption.The Future of Terrorism According to VICE But such attacks are a reflection of terrorism we're familiar with.
In the future, we will have to come to terms with a . The Near Future: Tensions are Rising. These global trends, challenging governance and changing the nature of power, will drive major consequences over the next five years. These near-term conditions will contribute to the expanding threat from terrorism and leave the future of international order in the balance.
Near-Term Future of Terrorism in the U. S. 3 An investigation by the US Congress into weapons of mass destruction made a chilling prediction of terrorists mounting an attack using biological or nuclear weapons within the next five years. Future Trends in Terrorism As a conflict method that has survived and evolved through several millennia to flourish in the modern information age, terrorism continues to adapt to meet the challenges of emerging forms of conflict, and exploit developments in technology and society.
Near-Term Future of Terrorism in the U.S. 3 An investigation by the US Congress into weapons of mass destruction made a chilling prediction of terrorists mounting an attack using biological or nuclear weapons within the next five years.
Hamm, M.S., Terrorist Recruitment in American Correctional Institutions: An Exploratory Study of Non-Traditional Faith Groups (pdf, pages), final report submitted to the National Institute of Justice, U.S.
Department of Justice, Washington, DC: December (NCJ ).